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WORLD ECONOMIC GROWTH SLOWS, FINLAND IS DEVELOPING

Although the world economy has lost momentum, it is still on the rise.  Global economic growth is gaining support from the US economy, which is expected to grow 2.8 percent this year and 2.4 percent next year.  The growth of countries is expected to slow down significantly from now on.  In addition to international demand, US growth stems from President Trump’s fiscal policy incentive and strong private consumption.  At the same time, Trump’s protective trade policy poses a great risk for global economic growth.

 2.1 percent of GDP in total EU area growth in 2018, 1.8 percent in 2019 and 1.6 percent expected in 2020.  Due to initial growth figures, I lowered my growth forecasts for this year and next year due to KORONA and trade disputes.  In very important European countries such as Germany, France, the Netherlands, Belgium, the economic growth of the euro zone countries has significantly reduced exports to susceptibility to increasing trade barriers.  Britain is experiencing a much slower growth due to Brexit.

In the 2020 crisis environment, the Russian economy may grow slightly more than 1.5 percent, supported by increasing oil prices in the 2018-2019 period.  However, Russia’s growth expectations are weak in the medium term.  China’s GDP growth will slow down gradually, but it can stay above 6 percent towards the end of 2020.

 The risk of growing worse than expected recently has increased worldwide.  A trade war is already ongoing and the commercial and political threat continues between China and the US.  Currently, countries have imposed mutual taxes on imports worth a total of $ 100 billion.  The USA introduced aluminum and steel taxes to the EU in June and responded by putting taxes on certain US consumer goods.  The situation is not stable in trade negotiations between the USA and the EU.

 However, the risk of further deterioration of this situation is quite high.

Developments in the global economy, rising after the Fed’s monetary policy tightening by some debt management problems in developing economies such as Turkey and Argentina is to stay in the shade.  Turkey and Brazil as well as Argentina currencies, the currencies of countries such as India and Indonesia lost considerable value against the dollar.  The currencies of Russia and China also lost value.  In the first case, this occurred due to new sanctions set by the US and in the second case due to the trade war and the slowdown in economic growth.  There is a risk that these problems will spread more widely due to KORONA and affect more developed economies.

It is getting heavier due to the fact that Italy is the third largest economy in the euro area and the KORONA virus, with over 130 percent of GDP public debt.

Finland’s GDP will grow faster this year compared to last year

Finland’s GDP grew by 2.8 percent last year, according to figures revised in national accounts.  Exports grew by 7.5 percent.  As imports grew by 3.5 percent simultaneously, net exports made a major contribution to economic growth.  Private consumption increased 1.3 percent more slowly in the revised figures compared to the first figures.  Consumption was boosted by growth in real purchasing power and strong consumer confidence.  Investment increased 4.0 percent.  GDP will grow 2.8 percent in 2018, 2.2 percent in 2019 and an estimated 1.6 percent in 2020.  This must be Scandinavian success.

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